Media Clipping — October 2001
Nova Scotia Federation of Agriculture News and Views Vol. 12, No. 7

4 out of 5 - Cheating the Law of Averages

By Laurence Nason

In the recent memory of most of Nova Scotia’s farm community our climate has been relatively kind to us. Cool damp springs, warm summers and moderate winters have characterized our climate. With some exceptions of course; on average the climate that plays such an important role in outcomes of agriculture has provided our industry with a healthy competitive advantage in some sectors.

Now, things appear to have changed. In four years out of the past five adverse weather conditions have played havoc with our entire industry - crops, livestock and ultimately farm incomes. Four out of five is cheating the law of averages.

While in many ways the opportunities for Nova Scotia’s agricultural economy have never appeared brighter, at the same time producers are being called upon to adapt to a staggering array of innovation in their operations. The industry is continually buffeted by external forces over which it has little control and is continuously being pressed to take responsibility for problems that extend well beyond the farm gate.

Each opportunity seems to he coupled with some level of constraint that threatens to neutralize any advantage. One of the most limiting constraints has been adverse weather conditions. The accumulative problems related to adverse weather conditions over the past five years are now beyond the capacity of individual producers to deal with and will certainly begin to affect the viability of many farm businesses.

Recently released data from Statistics Canada indicate that between December 31, 1996 and December 31, 2000 the outstanding farm debt in Nova Scotia has gone from $322 million to $458 million, an increase of 42%. Of course some of this increase is due to the unending optimism of farm families and their willingness to invest in the future; however, much of the increased debt can be directly attributed to costs associated with adverse weather conditions. A large percentage of farm businesses will, again, have to increase their debt load this year to compensate for weather related losses.

To date, governments have told farmers there will be no direct help beyond the safety nets that are in place - crop insurance, NISA and CFIP. These programs are designed to level out farm income between one good year and one bad year. They are not designed to deal with five years of low margins and consequently are of little assistance to the majority of producers who may need help this year.

If anyone has any doubt with respect to seriousness of the challenges being faced by the farm community in Nova Scotia they have only to turn to a report released earlier this year by GPI Atlantic (The Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index Soils and Agriculture Accounts Part 1: Farm Viability and Economic Capacity in Nova Scotia, April 2001.) That report, more accurately than anyone realized when the report was released, predicts the collapse of a number of our agricultural sectors if agricultural policy in Nova Scotia is not revamped.

The Executive Summary of that report concludes:

Although total farm cash receipts have risen 12% over the past 28 years, all other indicators of economic viability examined here are showing negative trends. If these trends continue at current rates, we are likely to see the virtual demise of several agricultural sectors in Nova Scotia, including apples, vegetables, beef and hogs.

While the immediate outlook for the industry uncertain, in the rapidly changing worldl we live in today, opportunity abounds for the agricultural sector here in Nova Scotia. However, many farm businesses have already utilized every resource at their disposal to adapt their businesses to current conditions. With the increased costs of irrigation to salvage crops and the cost of purchasing feed and forage to maintain livestock inventories and the lost opportunity suffered, many farm families have reached their limit.

Collectively the industry has taken the following initiatives: Meetings with Department of Agriculture and Fisheries staff to assess the extent of the damage caused by adverse weather are on-going. Requests have been made to Minister Vanclief for human resources to assist in addressing water management issues and the Federation is an active participant with the Canadian Federation of Agriculture’s lobby for an increase in safety net funding. A request has been made to departments of Agriculture and Environment and Labour to share engineering resources in a manner that would speed permitting and improve communications between the two departments on water issues.

A meeting of Atlantic Farmers Council has been convened to develop a Pan Atlantic approach of dealing with Ottawa on immediate farm income problems and long term soil and water issues. The Federation has partnered with the private sector and government to establish a ’forage exchange’ that will facilitate the sale and purchase of forages and to reactivate the Farm Family Stress Line. And, the Council of Leaders has established an industry working group to develop recommendations for a more responsive safety net program.

The Federation has asked governments to consider three actions. First, to provide emergency assistance to farm businesses with income problems directly related to adverse weather conditions. Second, to establish programs that will enable farm families to deal with the collateral damage caused by weather conditions, and to make a commitment to a long term strategy that will enable farm business to adapt to changing climatic conditions.

Copyright © 2001 Nova Scotia Federation of Agriculture