Media Clipping — Sunday, August 26, 2001, The Halifax Herald

Weather we like it or not!

The climate here and around the world is changing – and we know what to do about it

COMMENTARY by Ronald Colman

THE LAST 10 years were the hottest ever recorded. For the fourth year out of five, Nova Scotian farmers are battling drought and losing crops. Fires rage, our forests are tinder dry, and the fire hazard is extreme - the worst in decades. At the height of tourism season, the woods are closed.

The heat wave claims lives in central Canada. Smog shrouds the Annapolis Valley and a smog alert warns Nova Scotians with respiratory problems to stay inside. Forecasters predict more hurricanes than usual this season. Worldwide, natural disasters have increased sharply and insurance companies refuse to insure places vulnerable to climate change.

Day after day, the headlines trumpet the costs of an increasingly unstable climate and of air pollution, both of which have been linked to excessive burning of fossil fuels. What does it take to wake us up?

We take out fire insurance against the very unlikely possibility that our house may burn down. But we take no precautionary action and make no investment to protect ourselves and our children against the much more likely probability that a changing climate will produce massive costs. Indeed, we fan the flames.

Nova Scotia's greenhouse gas emissions have increased 15 per cent since 1995. More than a third of Nova Scotian households now own sport utility vehicles, vans or trucks, a 25 per cent increase in just five years, although each one has one-third the fuel efficiency and three times the greenhouse emissions of a small car. Instead of fire insurance, we douse our house with kerosene.

But it's not only our house we are burning down. Carbon dioxide has an atmospheric life of 100-200 years. Every tonne of greenhouse gases that we spew into the atmosphere now is likely to keep causing damage for generations to come.

A consensus of 2,000 scientists on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that temperatures will rise by up to 5.8oC this century and that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will more than double from pre-industrial times. And they tell us that the oil, coal and gas burned by power plants, cars, industry and homes are the most likely cause of the global warming that has already begun.

Science can never be 100 per cent certain, and further research on climate change is clearly essential. But these 2,000 top international scientists tell us that fossil fuel burning is more than 99 per cent certain to be the main cause of increased greenhouse gas concentrations this century. They tell us that the expected temperature rise is more than 90 per cent certain to be unprecedented "during at least the last 10,000 years."

And the official scientific academies of Canada, the United Kingdom and 15 other countries say "it is now evident that human activities are already contributing adversely to global climate change. Business as usual is no longer a viable option."

If we pay premiums and take precautions to protect ourselves against highly unlikely house fires and accidents, what kind of odds do we need before we act to protect our children and grandchildren?

But we are not listening to the scientists. They are telling us that snow cover has already declined by 10 per cent since the 1960s alone, mountain glaciers are retreating, and sea level is rising. The Geological Survey of Canada projects a 75-centimetre sea level rise in Halifax Harbour this century.

Possible impacts of climate change on Nova Scotia include more intense hurricane activity, an increase in floods and droughts, and a decline in agricultural production. Environment Canada has identified low-lying regions around Halifax, Yarmouth and the Bay of Fundy as most vulnerable to higher tides, increases in storm intensity and frequency, and storm-surge flooding.

The Truro flood plain and the Tantramar Marshes are particularly susceptible to flooding. Sections of the southern and eastern shores may see more erosion and coastal instability. In other parts of N.S., Environment Canada has pointed to potential saltwater infiltration of groundwater, threats to communication links, overtopping of dykes during storm surges, and falling lake and groundwater levels.

Yet Nova Scotians continue to spew more than 20 million tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere every year, more than 21 tonnes for every man, woman and child in the province. This is twice the level of the average Briton and West European.

Using estimates by climate change economists, a recent GPI (Genuine Progress Index) Atlantic study found that Nova Scotia's annual emissions will likely cause more than $760 million in global damages due to climate change.

But the GPI report is not about "gloom and doom." On the contrary. It is about practical, cost-effective actions we can take now that will not only protect us and our children against the devastating costs of climate change, but will save us money in reduced energy and fuel costs.

Just like installing a smoke alarm protects against future fire damages and loss of life, the economics of climate change show that every dollar invested in reducing greenhouse gas emissions will save between $17 and $31 in avoided energy costs and global climate change damages. By 2010 Nova Scotians can reduce their greenhouse gases to 17 per cent below 1995 levels and each year save future generations more than $200 million in avoided damages.

A computerized carpooling system and better mass transit could easily cut single occupant auto commuting by 50 per cent, reduce Nova Scotiaâs greenhouse gas emissions by 228 kilotonnes, and save more than $12 million a year.

That will also improve air quality and save an additional $1.5 million in avoided health care and other costs due to reduced smog, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and other pollutant emissions. And acting now literally puts money in our pockets in reduced gas expenses.

Simple household conservation measures like turning down the thermostat, washing some clothes in cold water, and cleaning or replacing furnace filters regularly can cut residential greenhouse emissions by half and save the average Nova Scotia household $800 a year in reduced energy costs.

But the biggest emission cuts can come by improving the efficiency of our power generating units. Currently 60 per cent of fuel burned in Nova Scotia's thermal power stations is discarded as waste heat that could be turned into space heating and hot water for residences, as the Europeans are increasingly doing.

Combined cycle (gas fuel, steam injection) technology, investment in renewable energy sources like wind power, and other efficiency measures could cut the provinceâs greenhouse gas emissions by 2.3 million tonnes, for savings of nearly $100 million.

The GPI report also describes cost-effective business investments in energy efficiency. Dupont estimated that an 18 million tonne reduction in emissions would save the company $31 million a year in reduced energy costs. Blandin paper saved $1.8 million a year through a 37,000 tonne reduction. Dow Chemical in Louisiana saw a 204 per cent return on its emission reduction investment due to energy savings.

Shifting the tax burden from labour and wages to carbon and fuel, as many European countries are doing, can provide the economic incentives necessary to encourage these shifts in behaviour. For example, British taxes that reward fuel efficiency and penalize emissions encourage small car use and keep gas guzzlers like SUVs off the roads.

Perhaps most important, the U.S. withdrawal from the international Kyoto agreement on climate change leaves that country isolated in the world, and leaves North America looking for a model of responsible action on global warming. There is a tremendous business opportunity for Nova Scotia to become the North American leader in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and to export its know-how to other jurisdictions.

Nova Scotia has already become a world leader in recycling, composting and diverting solid waste from landfills and it already attracts delegations from around the world to learn how helping the environment can also save money. Halifax has become the first city in North America to protect its people from the harmful effects of lawn pesticides.

And the Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index for the first time counts greenhouse gas emissions and climate change damages as costs to the economy, not as gains the way the GDP and the economic growth statistics do. The GPI can help us regularly measure our progress in reducing emissions and protecting the environment.

So the province is well placed to become the first jurisdiction in North America to meet and surpass the Kyoto targets and to take effective action on the greatest environmental challenge of the century. Indeed, the Canadian government has called climate change the country's greatest challenge since the Second World War. For the sake of our children, we can lead the way. There's nothing stopping us!

Ronald Colman, Ph.D, is director of GPIAtlantic.